Discussion Section: Sixty Years of China

Maybe you’ve heard. China’s got a big birthday party coming up, and they’re definitely going to be celebrating, with everything from soldiers to tanks to…I’m sure there will be other things, too.

So what are your thoughts on the anniversary celebrations? How will these sixty years be viewed in the future? Net gain? Net loss? Neither? Or, perhaps, a more interesting question: put your Nostradamus cap on and tell us where you think China will be sixty years from now. Please try to support your answers with some sort of logic. Show your work, use only number 2 pencils. You have thirty minutes.

This post on China Media Project might offer you a place to start. And this post on CNReviews has nothing to do with the anniversary but does tie into the race issue we sometimes discuss and thus is worth mentioning, too.

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0 thoughts on “Discussion Section: Sixty Years of China”

  1. So nobody wants to go first, eh? Well, I’ll offer one possible vision of the next sixty years. First off, I think the CCP will be celebrating their hundred-twentieth birthday in grand style, but they may not be the only viable political party anymore. For them to have gotten that far, though, they will have had to have taken very serious steps to combat corruption and local election fraud. The internet (or the hive mind, or the coretex, or whatever we have by then) will still be censored at least somewhat.

    Outside China in this scenario I would expect to see a lot more Chinese cultural influence than there is now. The number of foreigners studying Chinese and moving to China is going to keep climbing, which may mean that in the future white people will have to be at least slightly competent in order to get a job teaching English.

    That’s just a very rough sketch of one possible scenario, but I’m very, very tired, and have a long night of work ahead of me.

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  2. “…but they may not be the only viable political party anymore.”

    ‘MAY not be’ isn’t really going to cut it if this planet (yes, all of us) is going to be a better, safer place in another six decades. As unaccountable, unchallenged leaders the CCP lack the moral responsibility and compassion for rulers of the world. Period.

    “… in the future white people will have to be at least slightly competent in order to get a job teaching English.”

    WHITE people?

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  3. “CCP lack the moral responsibility and compassion for rulers of the world”
    Deliver 300million people from poverty and double digit growth for a decade isn’t responsible. Does Stuart consider India to be morally responsible and compassionate?

    In 60 years, I expect that China will be a developed country with a burgeoning middle class and will make great strides up the Quality of Life index with longer lives, better national health care, and a modern economy. Endemic corruption, poisoned produce and coal mine accidents will be a distant memory. I expect the democratisation will have happen by 2030 but the CCP will have no credible challengers (a la Singapore) for decades after. China will remain a nominally “Communist” country and continue to attract hatred and bile by western trolls for every imagined slight and offence. In their fevered fantasies, every parking ticket will be proof of Communist brutality and every traffic jam will herald the collapse of the Communist regime. This state of delusion will eventually recognised as a mental derangement and patients will be treated at a special facility in Abu Graib. Racial tensions with Tibetans, Uighurs and other ethnic minorities will be a faint memory in China as the racial melting pot after another 60 years of stirring. Tibetans and Uighurs living outside China and their western friends will continue screaming genocide.

    Eventually some huge global recession will hit at some point and the CCP will finally be turfed out of power. Western celebrations will be quickly muted as the new “democratic” party will be much more nationalistic and assertive than the relatively inconsistent CCP.

    At some point in the next 60years, somewhere in the world some Chinese shopkeepers will be lynched by some other ethnic group I shall refer to as XXX. Certain “informed” Westerners will continue to tell us this is OK because XXX had “grievances” and that the evil Chinese colonists were exploiting the poor peaceful XXX who are no doubt a spiritual people unlike the nasty materialist money grubbing godless Chinese.

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  4. “I expect the democratisation will have happen by 2030 but the CCP will have no credible challengers”

    They would have serious challenger if the original KMT (not the revolutionary one already present in China) enter in the game after a possible unification/annexation (pick one) of Taiwan. The KMT might only rule the small island for now but they remain one of the most rich and powerful political party in the world.

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  5. I expect the CCP to thoroughly rig the system for a first few decades at the minimum. Optimism does not mean naivety. The KMT won’t have a prayer. I would love the return of a true Tongmenghui-KMT but the official KMT is far too insular. I also don’t expect TW to reunify even in 60 years. Taiwan will be “tamed” somewhat and de-clawed but likely remain functionally independent. I think it far more likely that new political parties will come from the hugely unwieldy CCP as it sheds splinter groups in various flavours of Maoism or political vehicles for Charismatic conmen who want their slice of power or losers of some internal power struggle and their friends. I can see religious political parties too.

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  6. >Go easy on the CCP Kool-Aid
    Why you sound upset dear Stuart. It couldn’t cross your narrow little mind that someone could have perfectly legitimate reasons to hate your guts, could it? No of course not, it must be that CCP Kool-Aid that I keep drinking. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault…..

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  7. Custer! Why do my posts not appear after I click the submit button? Isn’t there a little message that is supposed to appear when mod approval is required, cos I didn’t see that.

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  8. >Go easy on the CCP Kool-Aid, mtm
    I actually grew up on Western Kool-Aid actually. I believed that the BBC and other Western MSM were impartial and well informed. I discounted pro-CCP sources as they had no credibility to me because Western media told they were all lies.
    So it took a visit to ML and meeting people before I realized what an idiot I had been. I had spent so much time sneering at CCP brainwashing, I had no idea of the extent I myself had been brainwashed by Western media.
    I still remember one BBC programme that insinuated that the poor peasant soldiers of the PLA would rape and loot Hong Kong after Handback on ’97. Another thought Wei Jingsheng would become a future ruler of China.
    But this is all irrelevant to you dear Stuart isn’t it? After all, there couldn’t be any possible reason why I might hate your guts. It must be all the CCP Kool-Aid I was weaned on from birth. All the CCP’s fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault. No criticism of westerners is legitimate, only criticism of the CCP is legitimate. It’s all the CCP fault……

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  9. Let’s take a deep breath, folks. Stuart; mtm does have a point; there certainly are plenty of folks in the west who just want to see China fail. mtm; I think you’re overreacting a bit.

    In any event, there is no reason for this to get personal.

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  10. Aw you know me, breathless outrage is my stock in trade. I’m ALWAYS amazed when people accuse me of being a CCP brainwashed drone/mouthpiece/50cent etc.

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  11. @ Custer

    “Stuart; mtm does have a point; there certainly are plenty of folks in the west who just want to see China fail.”

    Sure – but ‘plenty’ is still only a minority of knuckleheads. If you spend any appreciable time in China speaking with Chinese people you’ll find that the perception of a west that is out to ‘stop China’ is widespread, and that this idea is successfully propagandised and exaggerated way beyong the true incidence of the attitude.

    @ mtm

    “After all, there couldn’t be any possible reason why I might hate your guts.”

    No GOOD or JUSTIFIED reasons, that’s for sure. Granted, you probably have a few reasons of the other kind. I don’t hate you, btw; I just disagree with some of the stuff you write – especially the overtly nationalistic, knee-jerk anti ‘west’ stuff.

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